Meta shares traded near $562.20 and fell roughly 5.3% over the past five sessions as investors weighed a report that the company may be developing a standalone prediction market application.
The New York Times reported that Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has directed employees to build an experimental product that could eventually compete for user attention with prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
importantly, the app is currently experimental and will not include using real money, though insiders have also not fully ruled out a future in which that could happen.
unclear if it will be released.
— rat king 🐀 (@MikeIsaac) June 23, 2026
According to the news outlet, Meta has assembled a small internal team to create a smartphone app known internally as Arena. The reported project would function separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. Employees familiar with the effort told the newspaper that the initial version would rely on a points-based system instead of real-money wagering, though the possibility of future betting features has not been excluded.
Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market. Meta’s business model is profiting from addiction—kids, gamblers, & more. Stop it through KOSA & my prediction markets bills. https://t.co/e9tG1X8Fho
— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) June 23, 2026
Meta declined to comment to the newspaper and has not publicly confirmed the reported plans. Because of that, investors are largely treating Arena as an early-stage concept rather than a product nearing launch. Senator Richard Blumenthal, who has already stepped up scrutiny of how deeply betting companies are now woven into professional and college sports, wrote on X: “Meta’s business model is profiting from addiction.”
Meta explores prediction market trend while investors await details
The reported initiative reflects a familiar strategy for Zuckerberg and Meta. When new forms of online engagement begin gaining momentum, the company often looks for ways to participate in those trends through new products or platform features.
Prediction markets have emerged as one of the internet’s fastest-growing categories. Users make forecasts on events that range from elections and sports contests to economic reports and entertainment awards. As activity has increased, companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted growing interest from both consumers and the technology sector.
Meta could see benefits beyond engagement if it enters the space. Prediction-market operators can generate revenue from transaction fees and related services, offering a business model that differs from Meta’s longstanding dependence on advertising. The search for additional growth opportunities has become increasingly important as the company’s existing platforms already reach billions of users worldwide.
At the same time, regulation remains a significant consideration. The prediction-markets industry has faced closer scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers because participants may be able to profit from information that is not widely available. Concerns involving oversight, consumer protections and market integrity have become more prominent as trading volumes have expanded.
Technology companies have already encountered legal and regulatory questions tied to gambling-related activity. We reported on court cases involving Apple, Google and Meta that examine whether major technology platforms benefit from gambling-app ecosystems. Another report detailed action by the UK Gambling Commission related to illegal gambling advertisements appearing on Meta-owned platforms.
It may help explain the restrained market reaction. Meta has launched standalone applications before, with varying levels of success. The company introduced a prediction-focused service called Forecast in 2020 to crowdsource projections during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the product was discontinued in 2022.
Meta shares closed at $562.20 as investors weighed reports that the company is exploring a standalone prediction market application. Credit: Google
For now, investors remain focused on Meta’s advertising business, artificial-intelligence investments and long-term growth outlook. Until the company confirms Arena or provides additional details, the reported prediction market project is likely to be viewed as an experimental effort rather than a meaningful driver of valuation.
Featured image: Anurag R Dubey via WikiCommons / CC BY-SA 4.0
