Legal sports wagering in the United States keeps expanding as the NCAA basketball tournaments approach, but the industry’s main trade group says a new wave of prediction market advertising could complicate oversight and weaken consumer protections.
Fresh estimates from the American Gaming Association (AGA) show Americans are on track to legally bet about $3.3 billion on the NCAA Division I Women’s and Men’s Basketball Tournaments this year. The total would represent a 54% jump compared with wagering levels just three years ago, showcasing how quickly regulated sportsbooks have become part of the country’s sports culture during one of the busiest stretches on the calendar.
At the same time, industry analysts say a growing presence from prediction market platforms is beginning to reshape the sports betting ads landscape.
“March Madness is the highlight of the college basketball season and fans are gearing up for a month of tournament action,” said Bill Miller, President and CEO of the American Gaming Association in a press release. “Fans continue to engage with legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.”
Prediction market ads raises compliance concerns
Research compiled for the AGA by analytics company Sensor Tower shows that while traditional sportsbook marketing has cooled, promotion tied to prediction market platforms has surged across digital channels.
Licensed online sportsbooks actually pulled back on advertising last year. Digital impressions tied to regulated operators fell nearly 14% in 2025. Over the same period, prediction market platforms dramatically increased their marketing footprint, quickly capturing a larger share of sports wagering-related ads seen by U.S. consumers.
AGA data shows prediction market advertising surged in 2025, with 43% of digital sports betting ads in early 2026 lacking required responsible gaming messaging. Credit: American Gaming Association / Sensor Tower
This has produced a compliance gap, according to the AGA. The group’s analysis indicates that roughly 15% of sports betting ads viewed online in 2025 failed to include responsible gaming messages required by many state regulators. A large portion of those ads reportedly came from prediction market platforms operating outside the same regulatory frameworks as licensed sportsbooks.
Kalshi has become a central player in that trend. By 2025, the platform ranked as the third-largest sports betting advertiser in the country based on digital impressions. The pace has accelerated even further in early 2026.
During the first two months of the year alone, about 43% of digital sports wagering ads seen by American consumers lacked state-mandated responsible gaming messaging because they originated from prediction market operators. Kalshi’s advertising has also dominated visibility across the market, generating roughly 5.2 billion impressions so far this year, compared with about 2.9 billion impressions for FanDuel.
Meanwhile, marketing by licensed sportsbook operators continues to decline. A Nielsen analysis commissioned by the AGA found overall sports betting ad spending slipped 5% year over year, while total advertising volume across all channels dropped 1% and now sits 27% below its peak in 2021.
Television advertising has shrunk even more dramatically. Sports betting TV ad volume fell 9 percent year over year and has been cut in half since 2021. Even at its high point, however, sports wagering represented only a small slice of the broader advertising market. In 2025 the sector accounted for about 0.9% of total television ad spending, compared with 1.5% for alcohol and nearly 14% for pharmaceutical advertising.
However, the gaming industry continues to grow despite those changes. AGA data shows U.S. commercial gaming revenue reached another record in 2025, reflecting continued expansion of legal betting markets nationwide. The organization has also been urging Congress, alongside the Indian Gaming Association, to clarify how emerging prediction and crypto-based markets fit into existing gambling laws.
“Confidence in your wager – and in the integrity of the games – starts with a fair and compliant betting market,” said Miller. “That’s why it’s so important that everyone offering sports bets in the U.S. comply with state and tribal regulations, ensuring that consumers are protected.” The AGA has pointed to events like the Super Bowl, where it projected roughly $1.76 billion in legal wagers on Super Bowl LX, as evidence that regulated betting continues to surge.
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