Minnesota lawmakers are moving ahead with a proposal that would outlaw most prediction markets, pushing the issue further into the spotlight as similar debates unfold in other states.
A key Senate panel this week signed off on Senate File 4511, sending it along to another committee for continued review. The measure, brought forward by Sen. John Marty, DFL–Roseville, cleared the Senate Commerce and Consumer Protection Committee without opposition and now heads to the Senate Finance Committee.
The Minnesota Senate Committee on Commerce and Consumer Protection unanimously give a vote of approval to Sen. John Marty’s (DFL-40) bill, SF 4511, to prohibit prediction market contracts centered around sports, war, politics, weather, and other controversial markets.
— RLinnehanSR (@RLinnehanSR) April 14, 2026
The bill would make it a felony to run, support or promote platforms where people place wagers on how future events will play out, which includes not just operators but also those handling payments, setting odds or advertising the services.
What happens next for the Minnesota prediction markets felony bill
Earlier committees recommended the Minnesota bill move forward with changes before it reached the Commerce panel, where it again advanced—this time unanimously.
The next stop is the Senate Finance Committee, where lawmakers will dig into costs tied to enforcement and the potential impact on state agencies. If it clears that hurdle, the proposal would go before the full Senate. Approval there would send it to the House, where a matching bill would need to pass before reaching the governor’s desk.
Lawmakers cast a wide net in defining prediction markets. The proposal covers bets tied to sports, elections, government decisions, court cases, weather patterns and more. The broad language reflects a push to treat these platforms as a form of unlicensed gambling under Minnesota law, a position we previously reported on.
Supporters say the goal is to stop the spread of loosely regulated betting into areas that carry public consequences. Concerns have been raised about people speculating on elections or emergencies without clear oversight or safeguards.
Excellent commentary from Atty General Keith Ellison! Prediction markets are used for illegal gambling in MN. I’m pleased my legislation, SF 4511, to clarify that this is illegal, passed the Senate Judiciary Comm. with strong bipartisan support last week! open.substack.com/pub/keithell…
— Senator John Marty (@senjohnmarty.bsky.social) 2026-04-04T00:09:29.519Z
Critics, including industry players and some legal and tech experts, argue the bill could overshoot and clash with federal rules. They also warn it may limit emerging financial tools built around forecasting and raise constitutional questions tied to free speech and interstate commerce.
Minnesota is not alone in wrestling with the issue. Tennessee lawmakers are advancing their own legislation focused on prediction markets, but with a narrower aim, as it targets manipulation, seeking felony penalties for those who attempt to rig or improperly influence outcomes on such platforms.
As written, the Minnesota law would take effect August 1, 2026, applying to any offenses committed on or after that date.
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