A new app could compete with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Mark Zuckerberg has directed Meta to create a prediction markets app, according to a report by The New York Times. The experimental app reportedly goes by the name “Arena” and could eventually compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Where trends go, Meta follows.
Company insiders have stated that this is a top priority for Zuckerberg and Meta. These same insiders say that Meta plans to grow the app by leveraging its gigantic user base on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are over five years old, with a near-complete dominance of the industry, so Meta would have a lot of catching up to do.
The New York Times has also reported that the Arena app will likely rely on a video-game like points system, instead of money. If that’s the case, I’m not sure who this is for. Would people win stuff like stickers or badges? People use these platforms because they think they can win a lot of money betting on things like the temperature in Paris or doing insider trading. Badges won’t do the trick, which is why those same company insiders say that Meta hasn’t ruled out the eventual use of real money.
Meta has experimented with its own version of prediction markets in the past. There was the prediction market app Forecast, which opened up shop in 2020 and shuttered in 2022. This let people make guesses about world events and did use a points system instead of real money. It very much never caught on.
This is also not the first time Meta and Zuckerberg have “paid homage” to something that was making waves somewhere else on the internet. Instagram Stories followed the success of Snapchat and Facebook Reels came after TikTok. Facebook Dating came well after the success of Tinder and other dating apps. Threads came long after Twitter. You get the gist.
Of course, Arena could be stuck in the experimental phase forever and might never see the light of day. We’ll have to just wait and see. Given Meta’s track record, they’ll release the app just before prediction markets get banned or severely regulated.
